Since mid-2022, groups involved in the smuggling of migrants from Serbia to EU member state Hungary have become increasingly violent. At least 10 armed clashes between Afghan and Moroccan smugglers were reported between mid-2022 and late 2023 near the border fence between Serbia and Hungary, involving automatic weapons.1 Observatory of Illicit Economies in South Eastern Europe, Increasing migratory pressures in Serbia have led to conflict between people smuggling groups and crackdowns on migration, Risk Bulletin, Issue 16, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC), August 2023; Serbian police detain 6 people after deadly shooting near Hungary border, VOA, 28 October 2023. Close footnote Natalija Jakovljević, Održan treći protest protiv migranata u Subotici: Građani se ne osećaju sigurno, država ne rešava problem, Danas, 23 July 2022. Close footnote Interview with a representative of the Serbian intelligence community, Subotica, September 2023; Interview with a Syrian people smuggler, Subotica, September 2023. Close footnote Edit Inotai, Hungary intelligence warns of Taliban involvement in migrant smuggling at Serbia border, Balkan Insight, 3 November 2023. Close footnote
The situation peaked in October 2023 with the killing of three Afghans near the village of Horgoš.5 Aleksandar Bojović, Trojica ubijena u okršaju migranata kod Horgoša, Politika, 28 October 2023. Close footnote Tara Tomović and Nevena Zdravković, Srbija uvela vize za građane Kube, nastavlja se usklađivanje sa viznom politikom Evropske unije, Euronews, 18 April 2023. Close footnote Serbian police detain 6 people after deadly shooting near Hungary border, VOA, 28 October 2023. Close footnote Pokrenućemo vojsku i rešiti to pitanje za 24 časa, Politika, 27 October 2023. Close footnote
The border between Serbia and Hungary, while heavily guarded and protected by fences, has been a popular route among migrants trying to enter the EU and therefore a lucrative hub for traffickers. Conflict, poverty and instability in many parts of the world have led to a steady stream of people on the move through the Western Balkans, albeit below the dramatic numbers of 2015/16. In 2023, the EU border agency Frontex detected almost 100 000 irregular border crossings to the EU through the Western Balkan route.9 Frontex, Significant rise in irregular border crossings in 2023, highest since 2016, 26 January 2024. Close footnote
In the fourth quarter of 2023, Serbian police carried out a series of raids to drive out traffickers. More than 800 officers were involved, including anti-terrorism units and the gendarmerie. These forces deployed drones, helicopters and combat vehicles,10 Velika akcija policije na granici sa Mađarskom: U potrazi za iregularnim migrantima 800 specijalaca na terenu, Blic.rs, 1 August 2023. Close footnote Milica Stojanovic, Death of a premier: How Serbia’s rotten system enabled Zoran Djindjic’s killers, Balkan Insight, 10 March 2023. Close footnote
Serbian police secured smuggling entry and exit points throughout the country. They formed four headquarters: in Subotica in the north of the country; in Dimitrovgrad in the east near the border with Bulgaria; in Preševo, a town in the south near the border with North Macedonia; and in Mali Zvornik at the border with Bosnia and Herzegovina.12 Srbija pojačala kontrolu migranata na granici sa BiH, Radio Slobodna Evropa, 30 January 2024. Close footnote
A closed crossing point at the Hungarian border with Serbia near the village of Horgoš. The smuggling of migrants to Hungary has become increasingly violent.
Photo: Armend Nimani/AFP via Getty Images
As a result of the police operation, the informal ‘bases’ of armed smuggling gangs in border areas have been dismantled and there have been no reports of subsequent armed clashes. In the operation, police rounded up approximately 4 500 migrants.13 Serbia’s police detain over 4,500 migrants, seize weapons, Reuters, 8 November 2023. Close footnote Ibid. Close footnote
Furthermore, police took control of state-run migrant camps (supplanting the commissariat for refugees and migrants)15 Interview with a civil society expert on migration and refugees, January 2024, by phone; Interviews with former employees at the Commissariat for Refugees and Migrants, Belgrade, December 2023 and January 2024, by phone. Close footnote See Asylum Protection Centre Serbia, Twitter/X, 22 November 2023. Close footnote Interview with Nikola Kovačević, Serbian human rights lawyer, November 2023, by phone. Close footnote
There are three main routes for smuggling migrants into Serbia. The main entry points are in the south-west around the Raška region, in the south through North Macedonia and in the east from Bulgaria. In February 2024, 35% of migrants entered Serbia from Bulgaria, while over half (53%) came from North Macedonia.18 International Organization for Migration (IOM), Serbia — Migrant mobility situation report, February 2024. Close footnote Ibid. Close footnote Ibid. Close footnote
While the police operation appears to have been successful in dismantling several smuggling groups or networks, it has not stopped the flow of refugees and migrants. Rather, it has redirected the movement of people.21 Interview with a Serbian smuggler, Subotica, January 2024; Interview with a taxi driver involved in smuggling, Sombor, January 2024; Interview with a civil society activist providing aid to migrants, February 2024, by phone; Interview with a Serbian police officer, Sombor, January 2024. Close footnote IOM, Serbia — Migrant mobility situation report, February 2024. Close footnote Frontex, Migratory routes – Western Balkan route; Tihomir Bezlov, Atanas Rusev and Dardan Kocani, Borderline: Impact of the Ukraine war on migrant smuggling in South Eastern Europe, GI-TOC, September 2023. Close footnote
Figure 1 People smuggling routes in Serbia before and after police intervention.
For all smuggling routes, the capital city Belgrade is a hub. Along the south-west route, migrants tend to move from the towns of Tutin and Sjenica, where the migrant camps are still active, towards Bosnia and Herzegovina or to Belgrade as an initial port of call. In terms of onwards movement towards the EU, Priboj, at the border with Bosnia and Herzegovina, has become one of the main crossing points.24 Interview with an expert from the IOM, January 2024, by phone; Interview with a Syrian people smuggler, Sombor, January 2024. Close footnote
It is reported that Belgrade has become a hub not just for refugees and migrants, but also for traffickers.25 Interview with a Serbian smuggler, Subotica, January 2024; Interview with a Serbian police officer, Sombor, January 2024; Interview with a taxi driver involved in smuggling, Sombor, January 2024. Close footnote Interview with a taxi driver involved in smuggling, Sombor, January 2024. Close footnote
The shift in routes has increased pressure on the police and border guards on both sides of the border between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as coinciding with a proliferation of reports of police brutality and violent pushbacks.27 Interview with a human rights activist, January 2024, by phone. Close footnote Mario Pušić, Policija se oglasila o incidentu s migrantima i pucnjavi na granici s BiH, Jutarnji, 21 September 2023. Close footnote Interview with a Serbian police officer, Sombor, January 2024; Interview with a representative of the Serbian intelligence community, September 2023. Close footnote
This increased flow of refugees and migrants entering Bosnia and Herzegovina from Serbia adds to what had already been a growing number of people on the move through the country in the past few years, many of whom are being caught by the police. In 2023, police in Bosnia and Herzegovina apprehended 34 409 migrants, up from 27 429 in 2022, according to official police data. This exceeds the previous record high of 29 302 migrants caught in 2019.30 This police data comes from an internal report on migrants and refugees that has been seen by the GI-TOC, but is not publicly available. Close footnote
The crackdown by Serbian police has shaken up the market in other ways. Prices charged by smugglers to cross from Serbia into Bosnia have increased from €200 to €500 since the route to the north has become less attractive. In Serbia, ‘packages’ to Austria cost around €2 000, while they cost €2 500 or €3 000 to Germany.31 Interview with a smuggler, February 2024, by phone. Close footnote Taksisti iz Sombora uhapšeni u Novom Pazaru zbog krijumčarenja migranata, Danas, 1 December 2023; Interview with a taxi driver involved in smuggling, Sombor, January 2024. Close footnote
While the northern route has been disrupted, smugglers predict a revival in the spring. ‘Everything is generally slow until Ramadan. People are in Turkey now. But after Ramadan, people will start coming,’ one of the smugglers explained.33 Interview with a smuggler, February 2024, by phone. Close footnote
Indeed, there are indications that some smugglers are moving back to their old domain. One Afghan group is active in Horgoš close to the Hungarian border, while Moroccans have returned to their regular location near Srpski Krstur and Martonoš, settlements near the Tisa River.34 Ibid. Close footnote Interview with a smuggler, February 2024, by phone; Interview with a representative of klikAktiv, a Serbian civil society organization, February 2024, by phone. Close footnote
Therefore, while Serbian police have curbed smuggling-related violence, they have not been able to stop the flow of refugees and migrants, nor has the infrastructure of enablers in EU countries (such as Hungary and Austria) been dismantled.36 Interview with a representative of the Serbian intelligence community, Subotica, September 2023; Interview with a Syrian people smuggler, Subotica, September 2023. Close footnote
Observatory of Illicit Economies in South Eastern Europe, Increasing migratory pressures in Serbia have led to conflict between people smuggling groups and crackdowns on migration, Risk Bulletin, Issue 16, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC), August 2023; Serbian police detain 6 people after deadly shooting near Hungary border, VOA, 28 October 2023.
Natalija Jakovljević, Održan treći protest protiv migranata u Subotici: Građani se ne osećaju sigurno, država ne rešava problem, Danas, 23 July 2022.
Interview with a representative of the Serbian intelligence community, Subotica, September 2023; Interview with a Syrian people smuggler, Subotica, September 2023.
Edit Inotai, Hungary intelligence warns of Taliban involvement in migrant smuggling at Serbia border, Balkan Insight, 3 November 2023.
Aleksandar Bojović, Trojica ubijena u okršaju migranata kod Horgoša, Politika, 28 October 2023.
Tara Tomović and Nevena Zdravković, Srbija uvela vize za građane Kube, nastavlja se usklađivanje sa viznom politikom Evropske unije, Euronews, 18 April 2023.
Serbian police detain 6 people after deadly shooting near Hungary border, VOA, 28 October 2023.
Pokrenućemo vojsku i rešiti to pitanje za 24 časa, Politika, 27 October 2023.
Frontex, Significant rise in irregular border crossings in 2023, highest since 2016, 26 January 2024.
Velika akcija policije na granici sa Mađarskom: U potrazi za iregularnim migrantima 800 specijalaca na terenu, Blic.rs, 1 August 2023.
Milica Stojanovic, Death of a premier: How Serbia’s rotten system enabled Zoran Djindjic’s killers, Balkan Insight, 10 March 2023.
Srbija pojačala kontrolu migranata na granici sa BiH, Radio Slobodna Evropa, 30 January 2024.
Serbia’s police detain over 4,500 migrants, seize weapons, Reuters, 8 November 2023.
Interview with a civil society expert on migration and refugees, January 2024, by phone; Interviews with former employees at the Commissariat for Refugees and Migrants, Belgrade, December 2023 and January 2024, by phone.
See Asylum Protection Centre Serbia, Twitter/X, 22 November 2023.
Interview with Nikola Kovačević, Serbian human rights lawyer, November 2023, by phone.
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Serbia — Migrant mobility situation report, February 2024.
Interview with a Serbian smuggler, Subotica, January 2024; Interview with a taxi driver involved in smuggling, Sombor, January 2024; Interview with a civil society activist providing aid to migrants, February 2024, by phone; Interview with a Serbian police officer, Sombor, January 2024.
IOM, Serbia — Migrant mobility situation report, February 2024.
Frontex, Migratory routes – Western Balkan route; Tihomir Bezlov, Atanas Rusev and Dardan Kocani, Borderline: Impact of the Ukraine war on migrant smuggling in South Eastern Europe, GI-TOC, September 2023.
Interview with an expert from the IOM, January 2024, by phone; Interview with a Syrian people smuggler, Sombor, January 2024.
Interview with a Serbian smuggler, Subotica, January 2024; Interview with a Serbian police officer, Sombor, January 2024; Interview with a taxi driver involved in smuggling, Sombor, January 2024.
Interview with a taxi driver involved in smuggling, Sombor, January 2024.
Interview with a human rights activist, January 2024, by phone.
Mario Pušić, Policija se oglasila o incidentu s migrantima i pucnjavi na granici s BiH, Jutarnji, 21 September 2023.
Interview with a Serbian police officer, Sombor, January 2024; Interview with a representative of the Serbian intelligence community, September 2023.
This police data comes from an internal report on migrants and refugees that has been seen by the GI-TOC, but is not publicly available.
Taksisti iz Sombora uhapšeni u Novom Pazaru zbog krijumčarenja migranata, Danas, 1 December 2023; Interview with a taxi driver involved in smuggling, Sombor, January 2024.
Interview with a smuggler, February 2024, by phone; Interview with a representative of klikAktiv, a Serbian civil society organization, February 2024, by phone.
Interview with a representative of the Serbian intelligence community, Subotica, September 2023; Interview with a Syrian people smuggler, Subotica, September 2023.