Serbian police crackdown disrupts smuggling of migrants, but for how long?

Since mid-2022, groups involved in the smuggling of migrants from Serbia to EU member state Hungary have become increasingly violent. At least 10 armed clashes between Afghan and Moroccan smugglers were reported between mid-2022 and late 2023 near the border fence between Serbia and Hungary, involving automatic weapons.¹ This triggered outrage on both sides of the border,² as well as a blame game between Hungary and Serbia,³ and even claims by Budapest that the Taliban had links to Afghan groups operating in the border area.⁴

The situation peaked in October 2023 with the killing of three Afghans near the village of Horgoš.⁵ With parliamentary elections looming in Serbia (in December 2023) and pressure increasing from the EU to take action,⁶ Serbian authorities cracked down on smugglers.⁷ Indeed, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić even warned Bratislav Gašić, his interior minister and a close political ally, that he would send in the army if the police could not solve the situation.⁸

The border between Serbia and Hungary, while heavily guarded and protected by fences, has been a popular route among migrants trying to enter the EU and therefore a lucrative hub for traffickers. Conflict, poverty and instability in many parts of the world have led to a steady stream of people on the move through the Western Balkans, albeit below the dramatic numbers of 2015/16. In 2023, the EU border agency Frontex detected almost 100 000 irregular border crossings to the EU through the Western Balkan route.⁹

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Serbian police carried out a series of raids to drive out traffickers. More than 800 officers were involved, including anti-terrorism units and the gendarmerie. These forces deployed drones, helicopters and combat vehicles,¹⁰ in what amounted to the biggest police operation in Serbia since the crackdown on organized crime that followed the assassination of Prime Minister Zoran Đindić in 2003.¹¹

Serbian police secured smuggling entry and exit points throughout the country. They formed four headquarters: in Subotica in the north of the country; in Dimitrovgrad in the east near the border with Bulgaria; in Preševo, a town in the south near the border with North Macedonia; and in Mali Zvornik at the border with Bosnia and Herzegovina.¹²

A closed crossing point at the Hungarian border with Serbia near the village of Horgoš. The smuggling of migrants to Hungary has become increasingly violent.

Photo: Armend Nimani/AFP via Getty Images

As a result of the police operation, the informal ‘bases’ of armed smuggling gangs in border areas have been dismantled and there have been no reports of subsequent armed clashes. In the operation, police rounded up approximately 4 500 migrants.¹³ Additionally, they arrested eight smugglers and 119 individuals on charges related to human trafficking and illegal possession of weapons and drugs, and confiscated automatic rifles, pistols, ammunition, passports and drugs.¹⁴

Furthermore, police took control of state-run migrant camps (supplanting the commissariat for refugees and migrants)¹⁵ and closed several such camps, including in Sombor and Subotica, both near the Hungarian border; Kikinda, snug to the Romanian frontier; and in Adaševci and Principovac, close to the border with Croatia. These closures worsened conditions at the camps that remain open, by causing overcrowding.¹⁶ In addition to the dire humanitarian situation, there have been reports of human rights abuses by police against refugees and migrants.¹⁷

Smuggling routes shift west to Bosnia and Herzegovina

There are three main routes for smuggling migrants into Serbia. The main entry points are in the south-west around the Raška region, in the south through North Macedonia and in the east from Bulgaria. In February 2024, 35% of migrants entered Serbia from Bulgaria, while over half (53%) came from North Macedonia.¹⁸ Owing to the police crackdown close to Hungary’s border, most of the onward flows now head towards Bosnia and Herzegovina. Most migrants subsequently travel to Sarajevo and then proceed to Bihać or Velika Kladuša, aiming to cross the border into Croatia.¹⁹ Germany, Italy and France are the top three intended countries for migrants, although the final destination depends on the nationality of the migrant.²⁰

While the police operation appears to have been successful in dismantling several smuggling groups or networks, it has not stopped the flow of refugees and migrants. Rather, it has redirected the movement of people.²¹ In February 2024, in response to inquiries about their next destinations, the majority (82%) of migrants in Serbia indicated Bosnia and Herzegovina; 9% expressed plans to travel to Hungary, and another 7% intended to go directly from Serbia to Croatia.²² Previously, in 2022, migrants attempted to leave Serbia primarily at the northern borders with Hungary.²³

Figure 1 People smuggling routes in Serbia before and after police intervention.

For all smuggling routes, the capital city Belgrade is a hub. Along the south-west route, migrants tend to move from the towns of Tutin and Sjenica, where the migrant camps are still active, towards Bosnia and Herzegovina or to Belgrade as an initial port of call. In terms of onwards movement towards the EU, Priboj, at the border with Bosnia and Herzegovina, has become one of the main crossing points.²⁴ Migrants entering Serbia from North Macedonia, after coming to Preševo, are redirected to Belgrade. Migrants arriving from the east, from Pirot and Dimitrovgrad, bordering Bulgaria, are also directed to Belgrade.

It is reported that Belgrade has become a hub not just for refugees and migrants, but also for traffickers.²⁵ Unlike the border regions, which are now under scrutiny, a big city enables bosses to hide out with relative anonymity. ‘Belgrade is the main place now because it is a crossroads and a giant city, with many stash houses and places to hide,’ said a taxi driver familiar with the smuggling trade.²⁶

The shift in routes has increased pressure on the police and border guards on both sides of the border between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as coinciding with a proliferation of reports of police brutality and violent pushbacks.²⁷ Further downstream on this smuggling route, Croatian police were shot at from territory in Bosnia and Herzegovina after they thwarted a group of migrants who attempted to cross the border and enter Croatia illegally in September 2023.²⁸ Police in Bosnia and Herzegovina have conducted several actions that seek to target alleged Afghan criminals who appear to have shifted their operations from Serbia after the police crackdown.²⁹

This increased flow of refugees and migrants entering Bosnia and Herzegovina from Serbia adds to what had already been a growing number of people on the move through the country in the past few years, many of whom are being caught by the police. In 2023, police in Bosnia and Herzegovina apprehended 34 409 migrants, up from 27 429 in 2022, according to official police data. This exceeds the previous record high of 29 302 migrants caught in 2019.³⁰ In January 2024, police stopped 2 507 migrants.

The crackdown by Serbian police has shaken up the market in other ways. Prices charged by smugglers to cross from Serbia into Bosnia have increased from €200 to €500 since the route to the north has become less attractive. In Serbia, ‘packages’ to Austria cost around €2 000, while they cost €2 500 or €3 000 to Germany.³¹ But these figures are now more negotiable as the number of people willing to engage in dangerous travel has reduced. Modalities have also changed. Since police targeted taxi associations, which are now mostly out of the trade, smugglers have returned to using mostly vans and trucks.³²

Going back north in the spring?

While the northern route has been disrupted, smugglers predict a revival in the spring. ‘Everything is generally slow until Ramadan. People are in Turkey now. But after Ramadan, people will start coming,’ one of the smugglers explained.³³ A taxi driver involved in smuggling noted that ‘in the spring, the business will be on again’ in the north of Serbia, adding that his sources expect the camps in Sombor and Subotica to reopen.

Indeed, there are indications that some smugglers are moving back to their old domain. One Afghan group is active in Horgoš close to the Hungarian border, while Moroccans have returned to their regular location near Srpski Krstur and Martonoš, settlements near the Tisa River.³⁴ Afghan traffickers have also been spotted in Šid, a city near the Croatian border.³⁵

Therefore, while Serbian police have curbed smuggling-related violence, they have not been able to stop the flow of refugees and migrants, nor has the infrastructure of enablers in EU countries (such as Hungary and Austria) been dismantled.³⁶ This points to the need for greater regional cooperation – since cracking down on the market in one country simply displaces it to another country – in this case, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The situation also necessitates closer coordination and solidarity between Western Balkan countries and their EU neighbours, such as Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Greece and Romania, while ensuring the safety of migrants and upholding their human rights.

Notes